What’s In Store For 2009
Guest Post by Enrique Gutierrez of Digithrive, Inc
I’m excited for what 2009 brings to my spirits, but with a firm grasp on reality, I feel it’s important to also understand what’s really in store for 2009. I’ll break it down as I see it quarter-by-quarter and hope for the best along the way. Without further adieu:
Quarter 1
This will usher in a new president, Barrack Obama, which will captivate Americans for about a week, that’s the majority attention span. He’ll hit the ground running and we’ll all be pleased, except for those that fear for the worst no matter how much good is happening. The market will continue to shake up, oil prices will finally flatten out, and gas prices will continue to hover in and around the upper $2.00, lower $3.00, per gallon mark. The retail fallout of the 2008 season will slowly creep into the concerns of the market and the housing crash will continue to decrease sales, weakening the economy to the point of depression rates as unemployment increases, and tensions rise.
In World news, our allies will lean on the United States for aid in times of need as Israel and the Middle East swarm into an even larger mess than they already have. Their concern for our holidays and new president won’t do much to change their course of action, but how the new administration fields those situations will make for an interesting:
Quarter 2
With a new found focus on technology, companies that have no business dealing with online marketing and programming will try their best to make their space on the web different and cutting edge. Innovations and failures will become common sight, and those that stay the course with fundamentals in development and design will be faced with tons of new and interesting, though risky, challenges. The online marketplace will turn into the “last act of desperation” for many print agencies seeking solace in the only market that’s closely related to their success, as their print companies go belly up after the world starts to open up more to the idea that print advertising is too costly for it’s short shelf life.
The market will suffer as these large media print advertisers show their bellies to the banks, and the automotive industry bailout will start to take it’s toll on American’s confidence in American markets. Without football or baseball to distract the masses, and television seasons winding down, the opiates that help distract us will be replaced with attention to global news and the financial world more than usual. Attentions will shift back toward Washington while people who still think the president can fix everything search for answers.
Quarter 3
By now, the economy will be about as bad as it can be, the housing market will be at a new low releasing a new reality that there may still be 3 or 4 more quarters of bad housing market time ahead. Auto-makers will be in a crunch to release what they can for their 2010 product lines, and the crunch from short 2009 sales will weigh in on the US.
The technology quarter will be floundering and thriving, at the same time, measurements of successes and failures will start to pop up all over the place from all the fakers, makers, and mistakers of quarter 2 just now getting into the world of web. There will also be a good number of late adopters acting is desperation either looking for a steal/deal for technology work in Internet Marketing, or they’ll show their true colors (green) and pay to play catch up realizing that the time to hop on the web bandwagon has actually passed, but it’s never too late to get on the web.
Quarter4
Analysts will start to look back on the year, and give reports of hope for the economy within retail sales for the holidays. Stimulus will occur in one way or another, and they’ll hope they can get more consumers to the doors of stores. Regardless of their efforts, unemployment rates, consistent consumer confidence drops, and housing market failures (low equity in consumer pockets) will result in a devastating and final blow to the US economy next holiday season. America will enter the bottom of this downturn, making way for an onward and upward 2010.
2010
This should be the time where we see steady, real and authentic growth back to the market we’re used to seeing. People will be more comfortable with the administration, confidence will have nowhere to go but up, and the housing market will be back at a level where it makes sense, and the downturn will begin to swing back around. The DOW and NASDAQ will suffer pretty decently throughout 2009, but by 2010 a steady incline should start again.
What are the ups?
Freelancing will kick up, innovations will be the things of 2009, and consumers will get back to basics and start to really only buy things they either needs and/or can authentically afford. Credit will get back to realistic levels and make way for equity gains in 2010. Most importantly, the over bloated housing market will get back to reality, and the artificial garbage that’s created the monster we’re still facing will hopefully be vaporized by quarter 4.
Happy New Year, everyone.
This is going to be a year of patience, understanding, and hard work. 2009 you’ll learn one of two things; How to succeed with those three things, or how to fail by ignoring them.
